The Shit Can

Thursday, November 23, 2006

Imperial Turkey Day

Thanksgiving was good. I spent the evening with some other Marines, friends and their families. Good people, good food, good times.

With all this new talk of "Good big, go long or go home" in Iraq has got me to thinking again. I think the issue here is that people don't understand or are not willing to accept the fundemental reasons we are doing what we are doing. So many people have this idea of the great liberal democracy liberating people and destroying the "new facism". The reality is the United States is commited around the world now, and had been for over a century, to protect its interests abroad. You know what? There is nothing wrong with that. The Sunni jihadist groups, the Shi'a militias and militant political factions and the nationalistic ethnic groups in the Middle East are not the reason the US is commited in the Middle Ease, they are the antagonists to the real US goals there.

With this obvious imperial need to protect the most powerful nation in the world's political and economic interests there comes the requirement to wage that stuggle in an appropriate fashion. The goal of a pro-western, inclusive democracy in Iraq is noble and deserving of support. Democratic and secular market driven economies provide better for their people than any other current form of goverment on the planet. The truth lay in the numbers. The reality is once it becomes apparent that this course has failed than the means must take a back seat the the ends.

Points:

1.) The United States must form an alliance within the country of Iraq with the ethinic and religious groups that are most able and willing to do so. A Kurd/Sunni or a Kurd/Shitte coalition must be formed. The Kurds can be guarenteed a hearty share of the oil money and a firm nod of support towards more decentralized autonomous political control.

*The Shittes can be given money, guns, expanded powers to their militias and prime positions within a new functional autocratic regime in exchange for moving away from Iran and supporting the US in fighting Sunni jihadist groups and other insurgent actions. The other option is giving that same sort of support to Iraqi Sunni groups in exchange for a resumed suppression of the Shittes and their Iranian allies and a grassroots rejection of foreign jihadists such as al-Qaeda. Bottom line is someone has to get fucked, the Shi'a or the Sunni. Can't have it both ways.

2.) The United States must seperate the men with guns from their local loyalties and bring the entire effort in the Middle East together. Form several elite Afghan brigades and send them to Iraq to fight under US cadres. Form elite Kurdish and either Sunni or Shitte brigades and send them to Afghanistan under US cadres. Pay and equip these troops well, really well, and allow their religous convictions to play a role in their mission. A pan-Islamic struggle can work both ways. Seperate them from their local enviroment and give them a new paradigm. This can be done under the guise of a new coalition that is "taking responisbility for their own backyard" or some other bullshit. Expand the role of Kurdish brigades through out all of Iraq. Make the Kurds larger players as they have their shit together and their primary motivator is not religious.

3.) Use the Kurds to threaten Syria. Make it clear to the Syria goverment that Kurdish freedom fighters in Iraq will be given the support they need to send help and foster a resistence in the Syrain Kurdish population. Turkey's worries over this in their own country can be used to bring extra pressure against Damascus. Once the Syrians seal the border and get behind US policy in the Mid East a huge amount of foreign jihadists support will disapear.

4.) Money talks, pay off the Afghani generals. The only real counter weight to imams and mujahedin are the warloards. Warlords can be your friends, make it worth their effort. If they want to grow opium then let them grow opium.

5.) Restore the secret police in Iraq. Saddam was able to rule because his people feared him. If dissent is allowed to continue to fester in the open in Iraq it will never go away. Have the CIA train a new generation of Iraqi intelligence services and make sure their pockets are lined with crisp greenbacks. Once the people of Iraq know that Iraqi security services have the ability to disappear them they will either get disappeared or shut the fuck up.

6.) Make Musharraf a believer. Threaten to back India in Kashmir and wave those dollors. Threaten to start painting him as the US crony that he is to his own people and he will realise that his position, and his life, depends on the full support of the US. Special Forces need access to Pakistani territory. Cultivate connections within the Pakistani ISF and get ready to have a say in any coup against out mustached friend. Keep an eye on the nukes.

7.) When the EU and Co. complain make it clear that the only other option the American public is willing to accept is withdrawl. A Democratic President will get us out of Iraq and the rest of the world, wether it likes it or not, needs a stable Mid East almost as much as we do.

8.) I love stuffing.

3 Comments:

At 9:45 AM, Blogger Topper said...

Damnit Tom, stop saying things I agree with (mostly). It makes me question my sanity.

I love the whole "yes it's imperialism, but it's a liberal imperialism" arguement. Are you familar with Robert Cooper's "the Breaking of Nations"? It provides a great case for a certain kind of liberal imperialism.


Things I (kinda) disagree with:
The Kurds: I like them, and am fine with a larger role in Iraq, but not as a card against Syria. The idea of unifying Syria, Turkey, and Iran on a single issue is, well, scary. Not to mention Turkey is not as stable as we'd like them to be, and is increasingly anti-US. I know they don't have anywhere to turn to, right now, but what don't want them to start looking.

Growing opium... well it ain't great, but it affects us less then the Russians or the EU. Might as well include a program to pay people off for growing not-opium.

As much as I hate the idea of the US restoring the secret police at this point I'm not sure its a bad idea. It could come back to bite us HARD though (see the Iranian Revolution)

I think that two things should be learned from Iraq: One- never do an occupation on the cheap. Espicially the beginning part
Two- To make democracy in a country succeed, first make the country rich. See Adam Przeworski's "Democracy and Development" for proof.

Iraqis seriously wouldn't be fighting if they were rich and trading with each other.

 
At 6:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like stuffing too.

 
At 8:38 PM, Blogger Tom said...

Topper,

The Cooper book looks good, I'm going to pick it up. I already agree with Przeworski's apparent position but I might pick his book up as well. With what I get paid though I might as well flip bugers so we'll see.

As for the Kurds I'm advocating them as a threat only. The EU would have kittens if we supported Kurdish insurgents in eastern Turkey and not without some good reason. I'd also argue that there is no seperating the Syria/Turkey/Iran question. Of course one could advocate more effort to bring Turkey closer to Europe and farther from the near east but the reality is that with Turkey's demographics it is gong to take a very long time and alot more cultural and economic interaction with Europe (boardering the sewer of Europe, the Balkans, doesn't really help) before that is a reality. The immediate is what concerns me the most.

Why pay folks off to not grow opium when you could just...not? The person in question gets what he wants either way. Of course the back end of that is more spending on the "War on Drugs" back here but that's another stupid position that needs to be corrected.

About your comparison of a restored autocratic goverment with all the secret police fixings in Iraq to Operation Ajax I'd disagree that it jives. If Iraq had a stable democracy that was simply not willing to rollover and take it from western oil interests that would be one thing, but it's not the case here. The result of failure in Iraq is the rise of the type of regime that you fear could result from such actions anyway. WE Don't have alot to lose here and the conditions for blowback from intervention in Iraqi affairs is already in place.

Keep in touch.

 

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